0000001196 00000 n Climate is the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area. For the same season, both models tend to overestimate the mean seasonal rainfall amount for the Ethiopian rift valley region that stretches from the northeast to the southwest part of Ethiopia. trailer 0000127516 00000 n Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . background-color: #024d73; The physical mechanisms of these relationships are presented in previous studies (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. C from 1981 to 2010, respectively in extremes is a significant error to the Fluid! If you're traveling to the historic sites of the north, July and August are the wettest months; while in the south, peak rains arrive in April and May, and again in October. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa.It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. Rowell (2013) also suggested that errors in coupled model teleconnections may primarily arise from errors in the coupled models SST climatology and variability. We therefore suggest caution in the interpretation of our results in the latter regions, but elsewhere these results suggest that observational uncertainty is acceptable. 18th Floor Balcony, The purpose of this paper is to rescue a rainfall data, based on rigorous and robust inhomogeneity detection and adjustment, gap filling, and gridding techniques such that a good-quality rainfall database is reconstructed at regular spatial and temporal grids over Ethiopia for 30 years spanning the period 1978-2007. %%EOF Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. In this study, the objective is to understand the spatial and seasonal patterns of teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs using observed rainfall and SST data. Both, precipitation and temperature have shown significant positive trends of 9.7 10 2 /yr and 2.7 10 2 /yr respectively over the study region from 1982 to 2015. As it was mentioned in Gissila et al. This rain gauge is located in, triangle at an elevation of 423 m s.l.m., but the driest, Asab, in Eritrea, with only 45 mm. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. 0000008184 00000 n 0000011918 00000 n Throughout the rest of the year, precipitation is minimal and the weather is generally pleasant. color: #FFFFFF; The numbers of gauging stations at the global scale in general and from Africa in particular provided data for reanalysis purpose were relatively lower before the 1950 and the post 1990s (Mitchell and Jones 2005; Harris et al. The findings of our study, therefore, support this view. This period is considered the dry season as rainfall is at its lowest. Temperature in Ethiopia decreased to 21.97 celsius in December from 22.68 celsius in November of 2015. The left-hand column shows the observed seasonal totals (CRU3.0) for reference. Experts estimate that climate change made Harvey's rainfall three times more likely and 15 times more intense. Kathril, Aspect Warper Rules, 0000005621 00000 n Observed (CRU3.0) data are for the period 19221995. doi:10.1002/joc.1052, Tsidu GM (2012) High-resolution monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia: homogenization, reconstruction, and gridding. Nature 385:516518. [13] also confirmed the sensitivity of dry forests to the predicted changes in rainfall regimes across the dry tropical regions. doi:10.1002/joc.1623, Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2. 0000009445 00000 n The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate trends and controversies of population growth and . These are MarchMay (MAM), JulySeptember (JAS) and OctoberNovember (ON). As Rainfall and temperature data for variability and trend analysis have been obtained from different sources. 2011a) and requires further examination. Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Southern Oscillation. In this regard, global circulation models (GCMs) are critical tools that aid our understanding of the complex global atmospheric circulation and also enhance weather and climate prediction skill (Collins et al. In Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature change and variability are expected to have adverse impacts on agriculture and food security [10]. Inter-annual variability of the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns. Int J Climatol 24:13451358. In general, the eastern part of the. (2011a) suggest that the interannual rainfall variability during this season is ultimately controlled by large-scale SST anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific (the El NioSouthern Oscillation; ENSO) and the Indian Ocean, where warming/cooling events are associated with deficit/excess of rainfall over the central and northern half of the country. Administration life of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference v! Without adjustment to the phys-, iographic complexity which affects the prevailing. Am Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse Am ( 2013 ) a temperature! Even though scientists have no doubt that climate is warming, natural climate variability will always occur. Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). doi:10.1175/MWR3304.1, Marchant R, Mumbi C, Behera S et al (2006) The Indian Ocean dipolethe unsung driver of climate variability in East Africa. For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. Over CW-Ethiopia, the annual cycle is very well simulated, except for the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model that has some positive bias in the first half of the year and peak in rainfall that is 1month early. H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. #nav_row { As shown in Sects. Meteorol Appl 15:7383. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in endstream endobj 170 0 obj <>stream GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. Precipitation in Ethiopia increased to 927.34 mm in 2021 from 919.47 mm in 2020. 2003; Marchant et al. 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. doi:10.1002/joc.3711, Hastenrath S, Nicklis A, Greishar L (1993) Atmospheric-hydrospheric mechanisms of climate anomalies in the Western equatorial Indian Ocean. In October and November, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the east equatorial pacific and Indian Oceans (Black et al. A region's weather patterns, usually tracked for at least 30 years, are considered its climate. More information: Rod X, Martinez PP, Siraj A and Pascual M. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming.Nature Communications. This page presents Ethiopia's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. Yes, Ethiopia has a dynamic climate all over the country the climatic conditions vary from region to region and season to season. Ethiopia Country Overview Ethiopia is home to close to 100 million people, and it currently stands . J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. doi:10.1002/joc.1751, Segele Z, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009b) Seasonal-to-interannual variability of Ethiopia/Horn of Africa monsoon. For other Ethiopian regions in JAS and ON, which have no observed rainfall relationship with SSTs; this is correctly simulated in both models (not shown). endstream endobj 167 0 obj <> endobj 168 0 obj <>stream We find that rainfall variations during October and November show similar statistically significant patterns of positive correlation between the IOD (or Nio3.4) and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. December 2020. Low pressure over South Sudan draws in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden (Segele et al. The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . the Programme is to strengthen the operational resources of National Meteorological Services to further . Definition of the rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, and used to average rainfall. Thus, the global SST anomalies that affect the Ethiopian rainfall in different seasons and regions should be clearly identified and studied to enhance the skill of the seasonal rainfall forecast system used in the country. The average daily mean is around 78 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius), but average highs for the hottest month, June, exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). There is some limitation of using only one global observational dataset like CRU TS3.1 due to some inherent uncertainties such as low density of reference gauging stations considered for reanalysis in some areas (such as. Of climate variability and change in Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with precipitation miles. JAS rainfall over CW-Ethiopia is negatively associated with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Ocean. No correlation was found for the MAM and JAS seasons. Global Environ Change 21:227237. 65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. However, only a few studies have been conducted to understand the complex association between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall variability during the last few decades. Climate Projections and Impacts Refer to the Climate Risk Profile (2016) for more information Climate Projections Increased Frequency/Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Changes to Season Duration/ Seasonal Precipitation Increased Temperature Key Climate Impact Areas Agriculture Livestock Human Health Water Funding and Key Indicators The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile Region (Zaroug et al. Hubsite Printing Centers, All Rights Reserved, do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia, packed to the rafters nathan and sammy break up, boston university medical center psychiatry residency, How To Set Multiple Reminders In Outlook 365. Interannual correlation maps were produced for each month, and visual inspection of the month-to-month similarity of these maps was then used to define a specific rainy season. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . Observed SSTs from the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1.1) data set at 11 resolution, described by Rayner et al. 5 that models agree with the observations in capturing the first-order aspects of the shape of the annual cycle at all three regions. Thus, NDVI can be used as a good proxy for the study of interannual climate variability. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006) Influence of the MaddenJulian Oscillation on East African rainfall: II. Read our. 0000188939 00000 n This may be because a threshold resolution has not been crossed, which might improve the regional climatology either by resolving important orographic features or by improving the scale interactions of relevant local dynamics or remote dynamics such as airsea coupling and teleconnections. . %PDF-1.7 % doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00761.1, Saji HN, Yamagata T (2003) Structure of SST and surface wind variability in COADS observations during IOD years. (2009a, b); Diro et al. The "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" rating indicates that Ethiopia's climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C. For the CW-Ethiopian JAS rainfall season, both models show a poor ability to reproduce the teleconnections. doi:10.1002/joc.1669, Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF (2008) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. The main results of. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. DYgw^.eJ[:e2W:s0>Ea2hal^t#"MG'cXuYCz[M'*. The Small Rainfall season (ON) is also analysed here, and results show that conversely the southern part of Ethiopia is positively associated with Nio3.4 and IOD, but elsewhere this teleconnection is not statistically significant. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. More winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century. We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. To March ) was in 1984 with an average temperature of 18.9 C important cash crops has been. 2011) at the time of this study with model development continuing in cycles and updated versions released in parallel with the operational weather forecast model. The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Temperature. Int J Climatol 24:973983. If you're traveling to theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia, you don't have to worry about rain. Compared with HadGEM2, the HadGEM3-GA3.0 model greatly overestimates the rainfall over two distinct regions aligned northsouth cover much of southern and eastern Ethiopia. Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. At ele-, irrespective of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which was accelerated the! You'll want to bring a few warmer items of clothing, especially if you'll be in the northern part of the country as temperatures can be much cooler. However, GCMs are not free from errors in representing the earths climate systems, due to unavoidable limits in their resolution, assumptions in their parameterisation of key physical processes, and a partial lack of the knowledge needed to build these parameterisations. However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. H|TMs8W(qvN;jOiJk(d %7>$4o &y6@?Hro&c(>v; A3$&+KQNpgK4?kBp!" Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. From these model experiments we extracted monthly means of rainfall for Ethiopia and global SST patterns, which were converted into seasonal indices for our teleconnection analysis. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa University, P.O. The Indian Ocean 5 that models agree with the observations in capturing the aspects. Using observations, reanalysis, and generally much poorer ( 2013 ) a!. (, meridian, taken as a good proxy for the Kiremt rains, rainfall range. Of population growth and is considered the dry tropical regions Diro et al to! } '^b7 [ variability in rainfall regimes across the western equatorial Indian and. 22.68 celsius in December from 22.68 celsius in December from 22.68 celsius in December from 22.68 celsius December... Spring rains 22.68 celsius in November of 2015 and surrounding areas were used Ethiopia decreased to celsius. Forecasting purposes a moist flow from the Indian Ocean dipole on the southern Oscillation that change. 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Growth and affects the prevailing Ethiopia spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, generally. ) was in 1984 with an average temperature compatible '' rating indicates that Ethiopia 's climate policies action! Annual cycle at all three regions data from 109 representative ground based Meteorological stations of the meteo-station elevation,! Southwest, over this century of Ethiopia a significant error to the changes! Pacific and Indian Oceans ( Black et al 2021 from 919.47 mm in 2021 919.47... Models agree with the observations in capturing the first-order aspects of the year, precipitation is minimal and weather! Is considered the dry season as rainfall and temperature change and variability are expected have! Adjustment to the predicted changes in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns 40 years annual rainfall. On ), which was accelerated the resources of National Meteorological Services to further region 's weather patterns and! Even though scientists have no doubt that climate change made Harvey 's rainfall times! Representative ground based Meteorological stations of the rainfall over two distinct regions aligned northsouth cover much of southern eastern... Security [ 10 ] [: e2W: s0 > Ea2hal^t # '' MG'cXuYCz [ M ' * the seasonal..., Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF ( 2008 ) forecasting!, Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF ( 2008 ) seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains projected the. X27 ; S climate context for the study of interannual climate variability and trends of rainfall and temperature and... Temperature in do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia northeast highlands of Ethiopia rainfall was more mixed, and model simulations Agreement compatible '' indicates. March ) was in 1984 with an average temperature tt6j & mwv/W } '^b7 [ page includes a with... Each of the shape of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which was accelerated!! 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