During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. 2014). The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. During thisseason, Ethiopia and the Horn come under the influence of the Equatorial Westerlies (Guineamonsoon) and Easterlies.Hence, the Guinea monsoon and the South easterly winds areresponsible for the rain in this season.ii. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. All the given crops show considerably high correlation with belg rainfall. Similarly, a significantly upward trend of maximum temperature was observed in all stations varying from 0.023 C/year and 4.00% in GIN station with a maximum value of 0.21 C/year and 37.60% in ENW station. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. In line with Rashid et al. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. 2010; Simane et al. In a study by Mekasha et al. ; ed. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. 2002; Suryavanshi et al. The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia, 5.5. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. 2012; Meshesha et al. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. This The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. 2007; Fu et al. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. The results of bega rainfall trends revealed a significantly decreasing trend in four out of seven stations. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. 2017a, 2017b). Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. Others have focused on specific topics, particularly climate change and its effects (Fazzini et al. 1.1. In line with the study by Wu et al. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. temperature is high during the daytime in some places, and is considerably reduced at nightresulting maximum difference in the daily range.But in the case of monthly averages, variation is minimal and the annual range of temperature issmall. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. The spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia is primarily determined by altitude andlatitude. In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. 2014). The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. The elevation ranges from 2,747 to 3,674 m a.s.l. The magnitude of increasing trends in kiremit season rainfall varied between 0.33 mm/year and a percentage change of 6.13% (DBS station) to 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% (DB). The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. Summer rainfall regionThis region comprises almost all parts of the country, except the southeastern and northeasternlowlands. Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. Simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model indicate that a drier and warmer future will shift the location of snow line to higher elevations and reduce the number of days with precipitation falling as snow. 2016). The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5. The long-term rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. Overall, the five years moving average trend of average annual temperature of the study watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. Coping strategies are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability of weather conditions in different seasons. (2013), in southern Australia's Onkaparinga subcatchment and catchment, monthly rainfall heterogeneity was tested using PCI and interannual and seasonal variability of PCI was observed. The Physiographic Divisions of Ethiopia, 3.3. **10% level of significance. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. The Impacts of Relief on Biophysical and Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 4.3. 5.3.1. 2015). 2010 ). Another study by Di Falco et al. Therefore, increased sensitivity and vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase in climatic variability. In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. The region is divided in to dry and wet summer rainfall regions.Hence, the wet corresponds to the area having rainfall of 1,000 mm or more. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. This will help mitigate their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability. The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. The results from the coefficient of variations shown in Table2 revealed that in comparison with the kiremit rainfall season, during the bega and belg seasons rainfall varies considerably more. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. 2005). Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). 2005). Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. Both duration and amount ofrainfall decreases as we move from southwest to north and eastwards. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. Other studies have focused on very limited stations and arrived at a conclusion regarding the characteristics of spatial climatic variability for entire regions (Gamachu 1988; Meze-Hausken 2004). All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. (2011) and Manandhar et al. Likewise, the magnitude of increasing trends of maximum temperature were observed in all stations with a minimum value of 0.023 C/year in GIN station and a maximum value of 0.21 C/year in ENW station. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). Data and Methods 3.1. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. The production of wheat was less than 18 years mean in eight years out of 18 production periods, whereas barley crop production was lower than 18 years mean in nine years out of the total 18 years of kiremit rainfall. Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. The convergence of Northeast Trade winds and the Equatorial Westerlies forms theITCZ, which is a low-pressure zone.The inter-annual oscillation of the surface position of theITCZ causes a variation in the Wind flow patterns over Ethiopia and the Horn. 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